Tiny Mammoth · Q2 Brainstorm Verdict

Q2 Direct-Mail Funnel

$3K experiment 12-week test Medium confidence

Decide

Every click writes to q2_decisions in HQ. Tap again to change.

A · Verdict
Approve the overall plan?
B · List source
Where does the 2,400-piece list come from?
C · Audit-report automation
Build Google Places API integration for audits?
D · Time block
Block ~5 hrs this week for funnel build?
E · Printer quotes
Spawn a Claude task to request 3 printer quotes?
F · Case-study metrics
Spawn a Claude task to pull real numbers for Optimal / RL HVAC / Fenix?

The Call

Build and run a $3,000 direct-mail experiment across HVAC/electrical/plumbing, auto repair, and restaurants in Pasadena + Glendale + Burbank using a 6×9 postcard with three vertical-specific copy variants — all driving to one CF Worker + D1 landing page with a segmented intake form. Run all three verticals in parallel in a single wave. Use two checkpoints (week 8 — inquiry signal; week 12 — close signal) to decide kill, adjust, or scale to $7K/mo recurring.

Why

Math finally pencils. At $297/mo retainer and 5–10 closes/mo when fed ~50 qualified inquiries, the revised $25K MRR target (down from $50K) by Dec 31 is reachable through mail alone — no hire, no parallel channel, no second price hike.
The case-study advantage is real. Three verticals chosen specifically because TM has live wins to lead with — Optimal Electric, RL HVAC for HVAC; Fenix Wheel for auto; Toast restaurants. A specific number ("47 reviews in 90 days") beats generic claims 10:1.
Postcard over letter for wave 1. Prove the signal first at higher volume, then upgrade to letter format if the funnel proves out. Letter is a wave-2 optimization, not a wave-1 commitment.
Parallel verticals over sequential. Sequencing produces sharper per-vertical signal but stretches the test to 12 weeks before any scale-up decision. Parallel gives weaker per-vertical signal but tests funnel mechanics for all three at once — sufficient for "does mail work" but not "which vertical converts best." That's a wave-2 question.
Two-stage decision splits inquiry signal from close signal. Sales cycle is ~6 weeks. The test produces inquiry data by week 4–8 but close data only by week 10–14. Don't conflate the two.

Confidence

MEDIUM

Framing is solid; both agents converged on the same plan with disagreements named. But every key number is still an industry estimate, not TM's actual data — cold-mail response rate (assumed 1–1.5%), cold-mail close rate (3–7%), cost per piece ($1.00–$1.50). The experiment exists to replace these estimates with real numbers. Until then, even "math pencils" has ±50% variance.

The 7-Step Plan

  1. 1 Real printer quote~1 day
    PrintingForLess, GotPrint, or a Pasadena-local printer. 6×9 postcard, 2,400 pieces, targeted-list mail with postage. Replaces the $1.25/piece assumption.
  2. 2 Choose a list source~1 day
    Google Places scrape (cheaper, more dev), paid B2B list (faster, costs more), or hybrid. Get per-vertical counts for Pasadena/Glendale/Burbank.
  3. 3 Pull case-study metrics~1 hour
    Real numbers for Optimal Electric, RL HVAC, Fenix Wheel review/revenue impact. Turns "review work" into "added 47 reviews + $X in jobs."
  4. 4 Build the funnel~30 hours over 2 weeks
    • CF Worker + Hono + D1 mail_inquiries table (schema in ROUND-02/codex.md)
    • Landing page with vertical query-param personalization (?vertical=hvac)
    • Segmentation form (POS, locations, review velocity, contact)
    • Confirmation email + booking link + follow-up cadence (day 0, 1, 3, 7)
    • Audit report template (auto-populated from Google Places API where possible — saves 15+ min/audit)
    • Dashboard for tracking inquiries → qualified → audits → closes
  5. 5 Order print + mailweek 2 → lands week 3
    2,400 pieces — ~800 per vertical.
  6. 8 Week 8 checkpoint — inquiry signal~mid-July
    ≥24 inquiries → continue to close-data phase. <12 → pause and reassess copy/list. 12–23 → adjust and keep going.
  7. 12 Week 12 checkpoint — close signal~mid-August
    ≥3 closes + ≥50% qualified rate → scale to $7K/mo recurring. <3 closes → stop, write Q3 to brainstorm what to change.

Deliberately Left Open

Postcard vs. letter for wave 2+ — defer to after week-8 checkpoint.
Sequential per-vertical optimization in wave 2 — if one vertical wins clearly, wave 2 concentrates there.
Scaling beyond $7K/mo if signal is strong — defer until week-12 data is in.
Parallel second channel (referrals, content, partnerships) — defer to Q3, and only if mail is proving out AND $25K target is still in play.
What "additional resources" looks like — defer hiring/contractor decision until week-8 shows demand for surge capacity.
The actual price test — $297/mo locked for this experiment. Whether $397 or $497 is right is a Q4–Q5 conversation after ~5 cold-mail closes.

Needs That Block Launch

Must resolve in the next 3–5 business days or wave 1 slips.

  1. Real printer quote → replaces $1.25/piece estimate
  2. Final list source decision → unblocks list build
  3. Case-study metrics → unblocks mailer copy
  4. Decision on Google Places API integration for audit reports → affects audit-time budget
  5. ~5 hours blocked for funnel build before week-3 mail drop